A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
