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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still